2011 Oscar Predictions Roundup

Most commentators agree on predictions for the top awards at tomorrow night’s 2011 Academy Awards presentations. According to them, the Oscar goes to:

Academy Award, Oscar

– Best Picture: The King’s Speech (with The Social Network in second);
– Best Director: David Fincher for The Social Network, with Tom Hooper a close second for The King’s Speech;
– Best Actress: Natalie Portman from Black Swan (with Annette Bening from The Kids Are All Right in second);
– Best Actor: Colin Firth from The King’s Speech (with Jesse Eisenberg from The Social Network a distant second);
– Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo for The Fighter, with Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit a close second.
– Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale for The Fighter, with Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech a close second.

Anything outside these picks will be a big surprise, but surprises are always possible. The contested areas with close two-horse races are Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor Categories.

For a random sampling of predictions and other Oscar news around the Internet:

– For the three contested slots of Director/Supporting Actress/Supporting Actor, Roger Ebert opts for the non-Fighter leaders and is in the Hooper/Steinfeld/Rush category. While agreeing with the consensus on the other picks, he notes that if he were voting for Best Picture, he would opt for The Social Network even as he predicts The King’s Speech to win.

– Roger Ebert’s former TV co-host Richard Roeper of the Chicago Sun-Times goes a different route, opting for the Fincher/Leo/Bale combination. Also, he is one of the few who are still predicting The Social Network as the Best Picture, although he hedges his bets by saying it might be safer to go with The King’s Speech.

– Melenia Ryzik at The New York Times liked The Fighter and is in the Fincher/Leo/Bale category. Moviephone also liked The Fighter‘s supporting nominees and is in the Fincher/Leo/Bale category, as is Rick’s Predictions at Awards Wiz.

– Peter Hartlaub at the San Francisco Chronicle agrees, going with Fincher/Leo/Bale, although he thinks The Social Network will upset The King’s Speech.

– Gregory Ellwood at the HitFlix Blog bravely predicts a Fighter split with the Supporting Acting awards going to Steinfeld and Bale.

– Jeff Johnson over at Popdose also mixes it up a little bit, going with a Hooper/Leo/Bale combination, and The Best Picture Project agrees.

– Five critics at The Guardian UK differ among themselves, but with most saying the contested three categories will go to Fincher, Bale and . . . the country’s own Helena Bonham Carter for Best Supporting Actress (The King’s Speech)! Three of the five also pick The Social Network as Best Picture.

– For another take on the Ocars, Oscar the Grouch from Sesame Street makes his predictions (Best Actor: “Colin Filth”).

– Cinematical has some interesting Oscar statistics. Did you know that the movie with the highest number of Oscars while winning 100% of nominated categories was The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) with 11 wins out of 11 nominations?

– For a trip down memory lane, Salon has a slide show of past Oscar Moments Everyone Should See.

Among other big categories, the sure things seem to be Toy Story 3 for Best Animated Feature and The Social Network for Best Adapted Screenplay. The Best Documentary category seems to be a battle between Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job. See Chimesfreedom’s previous post on an industry’s campaign against another Best Documentary nominee, Gasland.

Conclusion on the Big Awards? It is always tricky to predict the winners because you are not selecting the “Best” but who you think others will say is the “Best.” So Chimesfreedom will leave the predictions to others (but see related posts below for thoughts on some of the contenders). From our random sampling, it will be a big surprise if The King’s Speech does not get Best Picture or if Natalie Portman does not get Best Actress or if Colin Firth does not get Best Actor. The difference in the close races will depend on whether or not the voters completely loved The King’s Speech and how much they liked The Fighter, as The Fighter lovers are going for Fincher/Leo/Bale while The King’s Speech lovers opt for Hopper/Steinfeld/Rush.

But if predictions were always right, we would not need the awards show. So our prediction is simply that somewhere along the line, there will be a surprise or two.

  • The King’s Speech Wins Best Picture
  • An Industry Attempts to Prevent Gasland from Winning an Oscar (Mad Movies)
  • True Grit ’10 vs. True Grit ’69
  • The King’s Speech (short review)
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    What are your thoughts on the predictions? Who do you think will win? Who should win? Leave a comment.

    Discovery’s Final Launch: The Space Race is Over

    Space Shuttle Discovery

    Bragg, Billy – The Space Race Is Over The Space Race is Over – Billy Bragg (press to play)

    Today at 4:50 p.m. EST (2150 GMT), the space shuttle Discovery is scheduled to make its final launch. During the 11-day mission, Discovery will bring supplies to the International Space Station, including Robonaut 2, a humanoid robot (I missed Robonaut 1 apparently). Since Discovery’s first flight in 1984, the shuttle has traveled 143 million miles and carried 246 humans into space.

    I remember watching the first Discovery flight. It was an exciting time for the space program. I was lucky to grow up with exciting changes in the space program, including seeing Neil Armstrong walk on the moon. The new space shuttles promised an even more exciting era. Many years before the shuttle’s first launch into space, I had a plastic space shuttle model that I glued together, and I would have guessed that by the time I was as old as I am now, we would have regular trips to the moon and robot servants.

    But it did not happen that fast. Science takes time, and some of the greatest advances are not necessarily the most exciting initially. I understand the debates about how money should be spent, but we cannot ignore science if we want a good future for us earthlings. And the International Space Station is pretty cool, and at least they will have a robot servant.

    Billy Bragg is an English singer-songwriter who has songs ranging from punk to folk. He is also active in left political causes, and in the 1990s Woody Guthrie’s daughter chose him to write music for some of Guthrie’s lyrics that were without music. The result was the excellent 1998 Mermaid Avenue album that he recorded with Wilco (along with Mermaid Avenue, Vol. II two years later). But Bragg probably is more known for writing excellent lyrics.

    One of Bragg’s songs from his Must I Paint You A Picture?: The Essential Billy Bragg, “The Space Race is Over” captures the nostalgia for the space adventures and perfectly captures how one might feel about the Discovery’s final mission. He remembers back to being a kid and telling his mom, “We’ll walk on the moon someday” because “Armstrong and Aldrin spoke to me/ From Houston and Cape Kennedy.”

    The song tells about his dream of someday traveling in space “On the high tide of technology. / But the dreams had all been taken / And the window seat’s taken too.”

    Now that the space race is over
    It’s been and it’s gone
    And I’ll never get to the moon.
    Now that the space race is over
    And I can’t help but feel
    That we’ve all grown up too soon.

    It is possible Bragg is being critical of the waste of resources, but I do not think that is the main point of the song. His son does ask, “”Why did they ever go,” and the song concludes, “Now that the space race is over/And I can’t help but feel/That we’re all just goin’ nowhere.” But the nostalgia is genuine. The song’s invocation of his mother and his son point toward him intending the mixed emotions in the song.

    “The Space Race is Over” appears on Billy Bragg’s album William Bloke, which Bragg released in 1996 after taking some time off from music to raise his son. In that context, the song’s reference to his son evokes some loss that future generations are not getting the excitement from science and the space program that we “older folks” did. Even if a computer did win on Jeopardy recently, it is not as exciting as getting humans to the moon. And “don’t offer me a place out in cyberspace / ’cause where in the hell’s that at?”

    Will I be watching the final launch of Discovery today? As an adult, I have other plans and will be traveling on the subway around the time of the launch, so I will miss it. Oh well. Godspeed Robonaut 2.

    Now that the space race is over
    And I can’t help but feel
    That we’ve all grown up too soon.

    Bonus Live Version Video: A live video of Billy Bragg performing “The Space Race is Over” is on YouTube.

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    Barney’s Version (short review)

    There are movies like this week’s Oscar front-runner The King’s Speech (2010), where very early into the film, you know what it is and where it is going and you enjoy it from the first minutes. Then there are movies like Barney’s Version (2010), which slowly suck you into the story and then takes you in unexpected directions.

    Barney's Version PosterFrom the reviews and previews, I knew going in that the movie starred Paul Giamatti as the Barney in the title and had something to do with following his life through three marriages. IMDb describes the movie as a “picaresque and touching story” about “Barney Panofsky, a hard-drinking, cigar-smoking, foulmouthed 65-year old hockey fanatic and television producer, as he reflects on his life’s successes and (numerous) gaffes and failures.” And the movie starts off that way and I went along, because I always enjoy Giamatti. There were little surprises in the movie, some of which you discover early on, such as a police officer who thinks Giamatti committed a murder. But the real turning point in Barney’s Version, which is based on a novel by Mordecai Richler, comes nearer the end when the movie heads in a different direction in a way that happens in real life.

    Like co-star Dustin Hoffman, Giamatti is always an interesting actor to watch. There are moments in many of his movies where I am blown away by his fine acting, such as in an ordinary scene in American Splendor where he is talking to one of the movie’s oddball characters in a car. Nothing special happens in the scene, but Giamatti is so comfortable in the character it blurs the line between acting and real life. Similarly, there is an emotional scene in Barney’s Version between Giamatti and Rosamund Pike, playing his third wife, that that is understated and cuts to the bone of reality. Although Giamatti was not nominated for an Oscar, he won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy for this performance.

    I am not going to ruin the movie for you by saying anything more, and you should not expect a big twist ending, as the surprises are small scale. But if you are looking for a good smaller movie that is a character study after you have seen the big studio Oscar contenders, check out Barney’s Version, which is in theaters now.

    What did you think of Barney’s Version? Leave a comment.

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    • George Washington’s Escaped Slave: Told By a Drunk

    Happy Presidents’ Day Weekend! In a previous post about Abraham Lincoln, Chimesfreedom noted the importance of remembering that great leaders were human because we should recognize that fallible humans may still accomplish fantastic feats. Nothing makes us more human than our stupidity, and early U.S. leaders were idiots when it came to slavery. So this post features a story about Oney “Ona” Judge, a slave in George Washington’s household who escaped when she was 23 years old from the Philadelphia President’s House in 1796 while Washington was president.

    History does not have to be boring, so we will let someone else tell the tale about Oney Judge in a funny video featuring actors Denny McBride and Tymberlee Hill. But storyteller Jen Kirkman is drunk and swears a bit (so do not play loud at work) . . .

    Not only did Oney Judge escape slavery, she escaped from the U.S. President! How cool is that? According to Wikipedia, at the time when Philadelphia was the U.S. capital, Pennsylvania had a law that prohibited nonresidents from possessing slaves in the state for more than six months. If six months passed, the slaves had legal power to free themselves. George and Martha Washington, though, worked around the law by rotating their slaves in and out of the state so none were in the state for six months or more. So even though the Father of our Country did many terrific things as a general and as a president, he also could be a douchebag. This website for the President’s House in Philadelphia features two interviews with Judge from the 1840s.

    But what about that video? My friend Mike recently introduced me to the Drunk History videos on YouTube. I am a little late coming to the party, so you may have already seen them. But if not, check out some other ones too. Drunk History videos feature a drunk person telling about a historical event while famous actors reenact what is being described. The series started a few years ago on the Funny or Die website. The series, created by comedian Darek Waters, is pretty funny, but be warned that they generally include swearing and some other drunken activities. Kids: Don’t try this at home. Not only are they funny, though, they are entertaining and educational discussions of history. Check out the links below.

    Bonus Drunk History Video    : Here is a funny Drunk History video about Nikola Tesla and Thomas Edison, featuring John C. Reilly and Crispin Glover. Yes, even the pigeon part is true.

    More Bonus Drunk History Video Links: Here is a Drunk History video about Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass, starring Will Ferrell and Don Cheadle. Here is the original Drunk History episode, about Aaron Burr.

    Bonus George Washington Information: In case you need to be reminded of some of the great things that George Washington accomplished, check out the official White House page for a short biography.

    What do you think? Leave a comment.

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    Computer Wins Jeopardy: Are We Entering Westworld?

    Flaming Lips – Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots pt.1Flaming Lips – Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots pt.1 (press play button)

    WestworldLast night, the special Jeopardy human-versus-machine match ended with Watson the computer defeating the Jeopardy human champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. In the two-game match, the winner was determined by who (or what) had the most money at the end. Watson easily won the first game and then won a closer second game to become champion. All of Watson’s money and 50% of the human competitors’ money went to charities.

    Watson went on several runs where it looked invincible, but at other times it made mistakes. Certain types of questions that required a different type of thinking caused problems for Watson. For Final Jeopardy of the first game, the question asked for a U.S. city that has an airport named after a WWII hero and an airport named after a WWII battle. Watson said the U.S. city was Toronto, which is news to people in Canada.

    Watson’s big advantage seemed to be its response time. Watson received the clues electronically through a different process than the humans. And it was able to time its responses perfectly so its buzzing was not too early, where it would be blocked, but still fast enough to beat the humans. Contestant Ken Jennings has noted this “big advantage” in Watson’s response time, but he was generous in concluding, “I wouldn’t call this unfair. . . precise timing just happens to be one thing computers are better at than we humans.” I still think the humans should challenge the fairness of the way the machine was able to get the questions and respond. Still, it was quite impressive how Watson could process the language and respond in the form of a question.

    The previous Chimesfreedom posts on Jeopardy and Watson have featured the folk song “John Henry,” so the song of the day today is “Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots” by The Flaming Lips off the excellent album of the same name, and we are going to discuss the movie Westworld (1973). So press the play button at the top of this post and read on.

    Westworld is about an adult amusement park where androids are supposed to help human beings fulfill their dreams and fantasies. Of course, as we all know, anything involving robots is bound to go wrong. And soon, the androids, including one that looks a lot like the King of Siam from the King and I, start really killing people.

    In addition to Yul Brynner, Westworld featured James Brolin. To you kids, he’s the guy who is now married to Barbara Streisand and who is the father of Josh Brolin, who was in the True Grit remake and No Country for Old Men. Westworld was written and directed by Michael Crichton, and the 1973 movie was the first one to use digital technology. Crichton would go on to write a similarly amusement-park-out-of-control themed Jurassic Park.

    According to IMDb, there is a remake of Westworld in the works with the release scheduled for next year. It appears they are still looking for a director and cast, but Russell Crowe is rumored to be in it. I’m guessing he would play the Yul Brynner tough-android part.

    But with Watson showing what computers can do, maybe by the time the new Westworld is made, a real android will be able to play the Yul Brynner role. I suppose the use of Watson Junior in the movie will put Russell Crowe out of work. But it is not a bad thing that computers take our jobs. We will need the time off from work to eat our vitamins and discipline our bodies for the big dooms-day battle against the machines. Save us Yoshimi, “it’d be tragic/ if those evil robots win.”

    Bonus Answers to Questions: Contestant Ken Jennings answered several questions from viewers online in an interesting and funny exchange on the Washington Post website. Check it out.

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